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Onset of infectiousness explains differences in transmissibility across Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages
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Does spatial information improve forecasting of influenza-like illness?
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Analysis insights to support the use of wastewater and environmental surveillance data for infectious diseases and pandemic preparedness
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Detection of surges of SARS-Cov-2 using nonparametric Hawkes models
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Estimating social contact rates for the COVID-19 pandemic using Google mobility and pre-pandemic contact surveys
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The effect of COVID-19 vaccination on change in contact and implications for transmission
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Accounting for the geometry of the respiratory tract in viral infections
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Assessing the effectiveness of travel control measures in preventing imported COVID-19 cases reveals the critical role of travel volume
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Ceasing sampling at wastewater treatment plants where viral dynamics are most predictable
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A CFD-informed barn-level swine disease dissemination model and its use for ventilation optimization
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Integrative modeling of the spread of serious infectious diseases and corresponding wastewater dynamics
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A Cluster-Aggregate-Pool (CAP) ensemble algorithm for improved forecast performance of influenza-like illness
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Verifying infectious disease scenario planning for geographically diverse populations
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Incident COVID-19 infections before Omicron in the U.S.
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Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis
Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis
As ground truth data, we use the weekly incident deaths and reported cases from the JHU CSSE group (Dong et al., 2020, 202...
Acquisition and Clearance Dynamics of Campylobacter spp. in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Acquisition and Clearance Dynamics of Campylobacter spp. in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
The prevalence of Campylobacter infection is generally high among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), but...
The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy
The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy
Volume 46, March 2024, 100738Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Highlights•The Scenario ...
Epidemiological impact of a large number of false negative SARS-CoV-2 test results in South West England during September and October 2021
Epidemiological impact of a large number of false negative SARS-CoV-2 test results in South West England during September and October 2021
During September and October 2021, a substantial number of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests in England processed at a...
The impact of inaccurate assumptions about antibody test accuracy on the parametrisation and results of infectious disease models of epidemics
The impact of inaccurate assumptions about antibody test accuracy on the parametrisation and results of infectious disease models of epidemics
KeywordsInfectious disease modellingDiagnostic test accuracyData AvailabilityAll input data and code used, as well as resu...
Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series
Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series
The time-varying reproduction number R(t) measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely c...
Inferring transmission routes for foot-and-mouth disease virus within a cattle herd using approximate Bayesian computation
Inferring transmission routes for foot-and-mouth disease virus within a cattle herd using approximate Bayesian computation
To control an outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to understand the different routes of transmission and how...
Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use
Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use
In order to evaluate the impact of various intervention strategies on Plasmodium vivax dynamics in low endemicity settings...
A case for ongoing structural support to maximise infectious disease modelling efficiency for future public health emergencies: A modelling perspective
A case for ongoing structural support to maximise infectious disease modelling efficiency for future public health emergencies: A modelling perspective
Volume 46, March 2024, 100734Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , , , Highlights•COVID-19 disease modellers lack...
A method to estimate the serial interval distribution under partially-sampled data
A method to estimate the serial interval distribution under partially-sampled data
Available online 2 December 2023, 100733Author links open overlay panel, , , Highlights•We develop a novel framework to es...
Seasonality as a driver of pH1N12009 influenza vaccination campaign impact
Seasonality as a driver of pH1N12009 influenza vaccination campaign impact
Available online 27 November 2023, 100730Author links open overlay panel, , , , Highlights•We develop a seasonally forced ...
Variation in pneumococcal invasiveness metrics is driven by serotype carriage duration and initial risk of disease
Variation in pneumococcal invasiveness metrics is driven by serotype carriage duration and initial risk of disease
Available online 22 November 2023, 100731Author links open overlay panel, , , Highlights•Reliable metrics of pneumococcal ...
The variations of SIkJalpha model for COVID-19 forecasting and scenario projections
The variations of SIkJalpha model for COVID-19 forecasting and scenario projections
We proposed the SIkJalpha model at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (early 2020). Since then, as the pandemic evolve...